Nursing assistants face the greatest projected deficit over any other analyzed healthcare occupation, with a projected shortage of more than 73,000 assistants nationwide by 2028.
The forecast comes from Mercer, which projects a nationwide shortage of more than 100,000 healthcare workers by 2028. The need for nursing assistants is expected to be greatest, with only 13 states expected to meet or exceed future demand.
"The projected supply of nursing assistants — an occupation that constitutes 8% of the total US healthcare workforce and 40% of healthcare support occupations in 2023 — is discouraging," Mercer consultants wrote in their Aug. 29 report, "Future of the U.S. Healthcare Industry: Labor Market Projections by 2028."
"The slow growth rate (0.1%) of nursing assistants, particularly in states such as New York, Texas and California, where shortages of over 11,000, 12,000 and 14,000 workers respectively are projected, will directly impact patient care and the burnout and attrition rates of other healthcare workers that depend on them," the report states.
The human resources consulting firm examined projected changes to the U.S. healthcare labor market by 2028 for states and metro and micro statistical areas. Its projections were made using historical data through 2023, with labor demand forecasted by analyzing industry-level trends and the prevalence of each occupation within the industry. Supply projections were derived using a linear autoregressive model based on historical supply data for each occupation and geography.
Readers can find other takeaways from the Mercer report here and access the report in full here.