Nearly three-fourths of U.S. adults are overweight or have obesity, with rates projected to increase further by 2050 without significant interventions, according to a large study published Nov. 14 in The Lancet.
The study was conducted by the Global Burden of Disease Study Collaborator Network, a group of more than 11,000 researchers and scientists from 163 countries and territories. The research represents the most comprehensive national analysis of overweight and obesity trends across all states and age groups.
Researchers used 134 unique data sources, including major national surveillance surveys, to estimate the number of adults with body mass index rates in the overweight or obese range and forecast trends to 2050. They noted that BMI does not always account for variations in body structure across populations.
Four key takeaways:
1. In 2021, an estimated 172 million U.S. adults were overweight or had obesity. The age-standardized prevalence for both conditions was 75.9% among men and 72.6% for women.
2. Between 1990 and 2021, obesity prevalence doubled among older adolescents and adults. Among girls and women ages 15 to 24, it nearly tripled.
3. By 2050, more than 213 million adults and 43 million children and adolescents are projected to have obesity without significant reforms. This translates to about 1 in 5 children, 1 in 3 adolescents and 2 in 3 adults.
4. Researchers said healthcare and economic costs will become "equally pervasive." While GLP-1 medications play an important role in obesity management, they are not a standalone solution, researchers added.
"Given the predicted surge in overweight and obesity, demand for anti-obesity medication will definitely increase, but it is not a silver bullet," study co-author Marie Ng, PhD, affiliate associate professor at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, said in a Nov. 14 news release. "With concern surrounding prohibitive costs and equitable access, together with varying effectiveness and potentially serious side-effects, prevention will remain a primary strategy."
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