There's a roughly 80% chance that combined peak hospitalizations from COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus and influenza will be similar or lower to levels seen during last year's respiratory virus season, though three factors could lead to a higher burden, according to a new CDC report.
The CDC posted its outlook for the 2024-25 respiratory disease season Aug. 29, based on expert opinion, historical data and scenario modeling. The outlook aims to assist hospital leaders and decision-makers with health and resource preparedness.
Experts anticipate that the peak hospitalization burden for the three viruses will be similar to or lower than last season at a rate of around 20 per 100,000 people. The agency noted the ongoing risk of higher peak rate, sharing three key factors that could lead to a more burdensome virus season:
- The emergence of a new COVID variant capable of evading immunity from prior infections and vaccinations, or a new variant associated with higher disease severity
- The predominance of an influenza subtype linked to more severe outcomes
- Low vaccine uptake or effectiveness, including lower than projected uptake of seasonal immunizations for the three viruses; if updated COVID shots are less effective against hospitalization than last year's shots; and if the flu shot's effectiveness against hospitalization is lower than projected
Vaccine hesitancy remains a challenge that could ultimately affect the levels of severe outcomes seen this virus season, CDC data suggests. As of May, only 22.5% of adults reported receiving last year's updated COVID vaccine.
Meanwhile, experts have raised concerns about threats the nation's H5N1 bird flu outbreak among dairy cows poses to public health. Since April, there have been at least 13 human cases of avian influenza in the U.S. tied to outbreaks among dairy cows and poultry. Health officials have reiterated there is currently no evidence that human-to-human transmission is occurring, though experts have raised concern that the nation is not conducting enough testing to quickly identify and respond if and when that does occur.