If current COVID-19 trends continue, North Carolina will run out of acute hospital beds in about six weeks and hit intensive care unit capacity in about five weeks, according to estimates released Dec. 8.
Researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill made the projections based on hospital census, acute bed, and ICU bed capacity data from the state department of health and human services through Dec. 5.
Researchers said runways — meaning the number of weeks until hospitals may reach or exceed their acute and ICU bed capacity under current conditions — are shorter in some regions than in others.
"Some regions (e.g., Asheville) are facing larger hospitalization growth rates, while others (e.g, Charlotte) have tighter capacities," they wrote in their report. "In Charlotte, twice as many ICU beds are currently filled by COVID-19 patients as there are ICU beds staffed and available for new patients. In contrast, the Wilmington region currently appears to be in the best shape within the state, as its current relative capacity is larger than in other regions."
Statewide, there were 20,784 acute hospital beds reported to be staffed as of Dec. 5, including more than 14,000 occupied by patients without COVID-19, according to researchers. Nearly 4,500 beds were reported to be available for new patient admissions.
Hospitals can flex capacity by making more beds and staff available, canceling or modifying elective procedures, or in other ways, but these options are not sustainable long term, said researchers. They said shifting available staff from one region to another is infeasible if areas are all facing workforce shortages simultaneously.
Overall, researchers recommended reducing COVID-19 as the best way to ensure adequate healthcare capacity for all patients.
Read the full report here.