1. Prepare for seismic changes. The healthcare system will be quite different from the system we have today. At this juncture in our history there is simply too much pressure building for a dramatic change. Healthcare executives need to wake up and get engaged. They shouldn't be sitting around, waiting for changes to come.
2. The healthcare reform law will be changed. President Obama's healthcare reform law is virtually unworkable in some areas, so there will have to be some rewriting of it. Republicans may not be able to repeal the whole law, but they definitely will try to repeal unpopular parts of it, such as the mandate to buy health insurance.
3. Many involved in reform will remain disappointed. Healthcare sectors — hospitals, physicians, pharmaceuticals and even insurers working behind the scenes — sincerely believed the system should be reformed and collaborated with Democrats on the healthcare reform bill. But many of them will end up sorely disappointed, such as the physicians who still don't have a permanent fix for the Medicare sustainable growth rate.
4. Efforts will be redoubled to control costs. We as a nation cannot live with healthcare expenditures continually rising, so the federal government will keep trying to bring costs under control. Rationing of healthcare has already begun and will advance. Medicare is an obvious target because it is a government-controlled entitlement and fraud and abuse are rampant. There is a legitimate question whether Medicare or Medicaid will continue to exist.
5. The federal government will strengthen its hand. HHS, CMS and other federal agencies involved in healthcare will enhance their power. Choice of physicians will be radically rationed and many physicians will opt out of the practice of medicine. The system will evolve into something like the British model, which emphasizes rationing.
6. Private insurers will be on the defensive. The federal government will set up regional insurance co-operatives that will undercut and bastardize the private sector. Therefore, insurance companies will have a tough time surviving. They will have to come up with totally different models or get out of healthcare.
7. Hospitals will consolidate. Hospitals that were used to competing with each other will have to band together to stay alive. What else can they do, with all the new restrictions and pressures thrown at them by ObamaCare?
8. Physicians will become hospitals' hired hands. Physicians would like to run their own businesses but they are scared to death about surviving in the face of steadily encroaching government controls. Many physicians are already embracing hospital employment for economic security and this trend will continue. Many other physicians will leave the practice of medicine altogether.
9. Get ready for physician shortages. More Americans will seek healthcare without a concomitant increase in the number of new physicians. This will create growing shortages of both primary care physicians and specialists and require wider use of non-physicians like nurse practitioners, physician assistants and nurse anesthetists. Many smart, ambitious young people who would have traditionally sought a medical career will instead opt for finance, engineering or other careers.
10. More hard times for physician-owned hospitals. A physician who is an icon in the hospital industry told me recently, "It is absolutely wrong for physicians to own hospitals. It smells of conflict of interest and it will boomerang on those doctors who persist in owning hospitals." He vowed to do everything in his power to stop this movement.
Chuck Lauer (chuckspeaking@aol.com ) was publisher of Modern Healthcare for more than 25 years. He is now an author, public speaker and career coach who is in demand for his motivational messages to top companies nationwide.
2. The healthcare reform law will be changed. President Obama's healthcare reform law is virtually unworkable in some areas, so there will have to be some rewriting of it. Republicans may not be able to repeal the whole law, but they definitely will try to repeal unpopular parts of it, such as the mandate to buy health insurance. 3. Many involved in reform will remain disappointed. Healthcare sectors — hospitals, physicians, pharmaceuticals and even insurers working behind the scenes — sincerely believed the system should be reformed and collaborated with Democrats on the healthcare reform bill. But many of them will end up sorely disappointed, such as the physicians who still don't have a permanent fix for the Medicare sustainable growth rate.
4. Efforts will be redoubled to control costs. We as a nation cannot live with healthcare expenditures continually rising, so the federal government will keep trying to bring costs under control. Rationing of healthcare has already begun and will advance. Medicare is an obvious target because it is a government-controlled entitlement and fraud and abuse are rampant. There is a legitimate question whether Medicare or Medicaid will continue to exist.
5. The federal government will strengthen its hand. HHS, CMS and other federal agencies involved in healthcare will enhance their power. Choice of physicians will be radically rationed and many physicians will opt out of the practice of medicine. The system will evolve into something like the British model, which emphasizes rationing.
6. Private insurers will be on the defensive. The federal government will set up regional insurance co-operatives that will undercut and bastardize the private sector. Therefore, insurance companies will have a tough time surviving. They will have to come up with totally different models or get out of healthcare.
7. Hospitals will consolidate. Hospitals that were used to competing with each other will have to band together to stay alive. What else can they do, with all the new restrictions and pressures thrown at them by ObamaCare?
8. Physicians will become hospitals' hired hands. Physicians would like to run their own businesses but they are scared to death about surviving in the face of steadily encroaching government controls. Many physicians are already embracing hospital employment for economic security and this trend will continue. Many other physicians will leave the practice of medicine altogether.
9. Get ready for physician shortages. More Americans will seek healthcare without a concomitant increase in the number of new physicians. This will create growing shortages of both primary care physicians and specialists and require wider use of non-physicians like nurse practitioners, physician assistants and nurse anesthetists. Many smart, ambitious young people who would have traditionally sought a medical career will instead opt for finance, engineering or other careers.
10. More hard times for physician-owned hospitals. A physician who is an icon in the hospital industry told me recently, "It is absolutely wrong for physicians to own hospitals. It smells of conflict of interest and it will boomerang on those doctors who persist in owning hospitals." He vowed to do everything in his power to stop this movement.
Chuck Lauer (chuckspeaking@aol.com ) was publisher of Modern Healthcare for more than 25 years. He is now an author, public speaker and career coach who is in demand for his motivational messages to top companies nationwide.