Baltimore-based Johns Hopkins University researchers developed an online calculator that estimates the individual and community-level risk of dying of COVID-19, which could help officials prioritize groups for vaccination.
Public health researchers used information from existing large studies to estimate the risk of COVID-19 mortality for individuals based on age, gender, sociodemographic factors and medical history. An algorithm then estimates the risk for individuals in the general population who are currently uninfected as well as factors associated with risk of future infection and complications after infection.
The calculator is available online for public health officials and anyone else interested. Users can see how factors such as age, sex and race/ethnicity can be used to identify the risk of COVID-19 mortality for a specific community, corporation or group.
By combining data on individual-level factors with community-level pandemic dynamics, the tool can be useful in setting priorities for distributing early COVID-19 vaccines and other scarce preventive resources such as certain personal protective equipment, the researchers said..
The calculator is updated weekly with new state-level COVID-19 information.