The maritime supply chain, which accounts for 80% of global trade volume, is facing several risks from geopolitical tensions and extreme weather, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
On Nov. 4, the Washington based think tank published a list of current and looming disruption threats to seaborne trade. Here are five threats to know:
1. Piracy
Although research shows a yearslong decline in maritime piracy, the trauma of a pirate attack or even the threat of piracy itself can weigh heavily on the well-being of crew members. Piracy is most common near the West African coast, the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea.
2. Russia-Ukraine war and the Black Sea
Port infrastructure in the Black Sea is a leading target by Russia in the Russia-Ukraine war. Since the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine's agricultural exports have dropped more than 90%. Moreover, regional maritime supply chains remain at risk as long as there is no clear end to the war.
3. Cargo ship attacks in the Red Sea
Houthi rebels, who are vying for control of Yemen, have been attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Their drone and missile attacks have prompted shipping conglomerates to temporarily halt or reroute shipments around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, leading to significant delays and higher costs.
Compared to October 2023, the average daily trade volume has fallen from about 4.89 million metric tons to 1.36 million metric tons in the Suez Canal.
4. Territorial tensions over the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait
An estimated 20% of global maritime trade passes through the Taiwan Strait, but territorial claims have been heating up over the strait and other parts of the South China Sea. If military action breaks out between China and Taiwan, supply of more than 90% of the world's advanced semiconductors could be affected.
5. Extreme weather events
Extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Helene in Florida's Gulf Coast and extreme winds on the East China coast, have disrupted trade and damaged port infrastructure. Droughts are also an increasing vulnerability for waterways like the Panama Canal, which experienced record low water levels between 2023 and 2024.