Inpatient and outpatient volumes have already begun shifting at hospitals over the past several years, and looking five to 10 years out could help organizations refine their financial strategies.
Sg2, a healthcare analytics firm, has released national and regional forecasts for hospital inpatient and outpatient volumes. Here are seven predictions on long-term hospital volumes.
1. Overall growth. Outpatient volumes are expected to grow 17 percent over the next five years, while inpatient discharges may decrease 3 percent, according to Sg2's report.
2. Bariatric surgery and advanced imaging. Bariatric surgery and advanced imaging are expected to be major drivers of outpatient growth in the next five years. Sg2 predicts outpatient bariatric surgery alone may increase by 75 percent.
3. Cardiovascular. Inpatient cardiovascular discharges have been on the decline at hospitals for many years. Inpatient angioplasties are still expected to drop as more cases shift to the outpatient setting. However, over the next five years, outpatient cardiovascular services are expected to swell by 16 percent. Certain cardiovascular surgeries, electrophysiology and vascular intervention are also expected to grow in both the inpatient and outpatient settings.
4. Cancer. Advanced cancer surgical techniques, such as neoadjuvant treatment, are expected to boost inpatient oncology services.
5. Neurosciences. Admissions for inpatient stroke treatments are expected to stabilize, and admissions for stroke interventions like tissue plasminogen activator treatment could increase up to 59 percent over the next five years.
6. Orthopedics. Orthopedic surgeries have exploded in the outpatient setting, but Sg2 still expects hip replacements and knee replacements will grow 11 percent and 16 percent, respectively, over the next five years in the inpatient setting.
7. Women's health and pediatrics. National neonatal intensive care unit admissions are expected to fall by 2 percent over the next five years.
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