The U.S. should learn from past pandemics and specifically avoid one mistake made amid the 1918 influenza pandemic, according to an op-ed published Jan. 31 by The New York Times.
The article is penned by John Barry, distinguished scholar at New Orleans-based Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine and author of The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History.
Most histories of the 1918 pandemic say it ended in the summer of 1919 after a third wave. Yet the virus continued to kill, Mr. Barry writes. In 1920, a variant emerged that was lethal enough to have counted as a fourth wave. This happened despite plenty of Americans having natural immunity and after viral lethality in the third wave had decreased, according to Mr. Barry.
Nearly all cities in the U.S. imposed restrictions amid the second wave that peaked in the fall of 1918. Some cities reimposed measures when a third, less deadly wave struck that winter. But virtually no city responded in 1920, Mr. Barry writes. People were weary and, along with historians, ignored the fourth wave. The virus mutated into ordinary seasonal flu in 1921, but the world moved on well before.
"We should not repeat that mistake," Mr. Barry writes. Right now, there are reasons for optimism; omicron cases are declining in some areas, and the variant appears less virulent. It's possible that the virus will continue to decrease in lethality. All of which makes overconfidence, indifference or weariness a danger now, according to Mr. Barry.
Signs of weariness — or misguided hope — are everywhere, Mr. Barry writes, citing stagnating vaccination rates and low booster uptake in the U.S. As in 1920, people are tired of taking precautions, which is ceding control to the virus.
It's likely that future coronavirus variants will be less dangerous, but mutations are random and the only thing certain is that future variants, if successful, elude immune protection. That occured not only in 1920 with the 1918 virus, but also in the 1957, 1968 and 2009 flu pandemics.
"Such precedents should make us wary. The end is not going to arrive anytime soon," Mr. Barry writes. "The immediate future still depends on the virus and how we wield our current arsenal: vaccines, masks, ventilation, the antiviral drug remdesivir and steroids and the one monoclonal treatment that still works against omicron, social distancing and avoiding crowds. As a society, we have largely abandoned the public health measures on that list. As individuals, we can still act."