The current rise in COVID-19 cases could be 10 to 14 times worse than official counts suggest, but experts say there is still merit in reporting cases, The Atlantic reported May 29.
Jason Salemi, an associate epidemiology professor at the Tampa, Fla.-based University of South Florida College of Public Health, told The Atlantic three factors have contributed to the inconsistencies: increased availability of at-home tests, an overall testing decline and a mix of "viral conditions," meaning fewer people could be symptomatic when they contract COVID-19 and therefore less likely to get tested.
Case-level data still has value, particularly when used with other metrics, such as hospitalizations and wastewater data, that are not affected by at-home tests or testing frequency.
Tara Sell, PhD, an assistant professor at Baltimore-based Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told The Atlantic she assumes cases are undercounted when she is monitoring for trends. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Carlton, an associate professor at the Aurora, Colo.-based Colorado School of Public Health, suggests starting with the CDC’s community-levels map, which color-codes counties using three metrics, one of which is cases. From there, she encourages people to make decisions based on how present COVID-19 is in their community, while assuming cases could be higher than indicated.