COVID-19 hospitalizations are ticking up nationwide, spurring questions about potential public health challenges the U.S. may face this fall. Infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm, PhD, told the Star Tribune that he does not anticipate a substantial pandemic surge but is still remaining vigilant.
COVID-19 admissions increased 10.3 percent in the week ending July 15, representing the largest weekly jump seen since December, CDC data shows.
"I think we're clearly on the backside of what I would call the pandemic surges. I don't think we're going to ever go back to 2020, 2021 or 2022," Dr. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, told the Star Tribune on July 27. "But at the same time, one of the challenges we have is these variants keep changing. And what these changing variants might do and how they might do it is something we haven't anticipated yet."
The CDC started tracking several new variants in the past month, including EG.5 and EU.1.1. EG.5 accounted for 11.4 percent of U.S. COVID-19 cases in the week ending July 22 while EU.1.1 accounted for 0.6 percent, according to CDC data.
Another challenge is the U.S. population is becoming less immune as protection from both vaccines and past infections wanes over time. Dr. Osterholm pointed to early data suggesting new boosters coming out this fall offer good protection against the virus. However, he still expressed uncertainty about the virus's trajectory heading into the winter months.
"I don't know where it's going to go. It's not done with us yet," he said. "I still sleep with one eye open anticipating the future. I learned a long time ago in this job that hope is not a good strategy."