National disease modeling suggests COVID-19 hospitalizations will remain stable through the end of September while cases and deaths fall.
Three forecasts to know:
Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to decrease 4.6 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will dip from 51,586.4 cases on Sept. 10 to 49,235 by Sept. 24.
The nation's case rate is also expected to fall from 19.9 cases per 100,000 population to 15 over the same period.
Hospitalizations: Nationwide, daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, with 1,100 to 9,800 new admissions likely reported on Sept. 30, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 14 modeling groups.
The nation's seven-day average of new hospital admissions was 4,178 as of Sept. 10, down from 4,931 the previous week, CDC data shows.
Deaths: COVID-19 deaths are projected to decrease over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 16 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,700 to 4,400 deaths likely reported in the week ending Oct. 1, which translates to a daily total of 242.9 to 628.6.
The nation's current seven-day daily death average was 382 as of Sept. 12, down 20 percent in the last two weeks, according to data tracked by The New York Times.
The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.
Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values Sept. 13 at 9 a.m. CDT.