Health systems will see a 4.92 percent price increase for drug purchases in 2019, according to estimates from Vizient's July 2018 Drug Price Forecast report.
Vizient's report outlines various factors driving price and practice changes in the drug industry. To compile the report, the Irving, Texas-based group purchasing organization analyzed drug purchasing data for its member hospitals and nonacute care providers from April 1, 2017, through March 31, 2018. Forecasts are based on drug price changes over the last three years, current knowledge of contract allowances, and market factors like expiring patents or new competition.
The 2019 estimate represents a slower projected growth rate than past forecasts. For example, Vizient's July 2017 Drug Price Forecast report estimated a 7.61 percent price increase for drug purchases in 2018.
The report cites new biosimilars and generic drugs as the main reason for the anticipated decline in drug spending. Vizient expects drugs with no competition to account for 79 percent of the projected price inflation, according to the report.
"While the projected increase for 2019 is less than 2018, it is still growing quickly," Dan Kistner, PharmD, senior vice president of pharmacy solutions for Vizient, said in a press release. "Two key themes we saw were the continued growth of specialty pharmacy products as a share of total spending and the critical importance of ongoing, robust generic and biosimilar competition on restraining overall price growth."
Editor's note: This article was updated Aug. 13.
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