Global prescription drug spending expected to reach $1.6 trillion in 2025

The global medicine market is expected to grow 3 percent to 6 percent through 2025, reaching $1.6 trillion in total market size in 2025, excluding spending on COVID-19 vaccines, according to a report released April 28 by the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science

Seven takeaways from the report: 

  1. The U.S. market on a net price basis is expected to grow 0 percent to 3 percent over the next five years, down from 3 percent for the last five years.

  2. Five years from now, medicine spending will be nearly 60 percent from specialty drugs in developed markets and 50 percent globally. Older and traditional therapies will become progressively less expensive.

  3. Medicine spending through 2025 is expected to be a cumulative $88 billion higher than the pre-COVID outlook, despite new vaccine spending and declines in spending unrelated to the pandemic or the COVID-19 vaccine.

  4. Through 2025, the number of new active substances launches are projected to continue at an above-average rate, with an average of 54 to 63 per year.  The last five years averaged 52 per year.
  1. The impact of exclusivity losses will increase to $166 billion over the next five years, mostly due to the availability of biosimilars. The cumulative savings from biosimilars is expected to reach $285 billion.

  2. The two leading global therapy areas, oncology and immunology, are expected to grow 9 percent to 12 percent through 2025. Oncology is projected to add 100 new treatments over five years, contributing to an increase in spending of more than $100 billion, for a  total of more than $260 billion in 2025.

  3. The worldwide COVID-19 vaccination effort is expected to be completed within two years, but people will likely require periodic booster shots, with total vaccine costs reaching $157 billion through 2025.

Read the full report here.

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