Eighteen of the current top 20 brand-name medications will face competition from generics or other biosimilars by 2023, according to a new report from IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science.
The report, titled "The Global Use of Medicine in 2019 and Outlook to 2023: Forecasts and Areas to Watch," analyzed current spending reports and a plethora of other data to offer predictions for the drug industry.
Eight key findings and predictions:
1. Global drug spending. Global drug spending is expected to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2023. This is an increase of 50 percent from 2016. In 2018, global drug spending reached $1.2 trillion.
2. Prescription opioid use. After peaking in 2011, prescription opioid use on a morphine milligram per capita basis has now declined for seven consecutive years. Analysts predict that legislation will slow the rate of prescription further by 2023.
3. New drugs. By 2023, the number of new products launched is expected to increase to an average of 54 per year. This is up from an annual average of 46 from the last five years.
4. Net drug prices. Net drug prices in the U.S. grew about 1.5 percent in 2018. They are expected to rise up to 3 percent in the next five years.
5. U.S. list prices. List price increases are expected to remain in the range of 4 percent to 7 percent over the next five years.
6. Mobile Apps. The FDA has seen a ton of mobile apps being submitted for clearance or approval. This trend is expected to pick up through 2023.
7. Pharma company hires. Drugmakers will continue to hire specialists in patient affairs and patient advocacy. The report estimates that most of the top 20 pharma companies will have a C-suite patient advocate role this year.
8. Biosimilar competition. By 2023, biologic makers will increasingly face competition from those developing biosimilars. The report estimates that the biosimilar market will be three times larger and the presence of competition will generate about $160 billion in savings in the next five years.