Nearly 20 states are projected to see peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 over the next two weeks, according to updated projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle.
The model, first released in late March, presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained through the end of May. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.
IHME's model is updated regularly as new data becomes available. The current modeling does not capture how the risk for more COVID-19 cases, and potentially deaths, could rise due to increased interaction among people in the U.S. "This is particularly true if locations have not fully instituted strong containment strategies like widely available testing and contact tracing," IHME said. Access more information about the changes and the projected peak in daily deaths here.
Some have criticized IHME's model, arguing its projections for total deaths shouldn't be used for government decision-making. However, the model continues to be widely used and influential in planning and preparation because of a lack of national models provided by the CDC or other federal agencies. Read more about the controversy in The Washington Post and STAT. IHME recommends decision-makers draw on a variety of COVID-19 models.
According to IHME's most recent projections, which use data updated April 28, peak demand for hospital resources, namely hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators, occurred at the national level on April 19. However, this varies by state. Below is the projected date of peak demand for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators in each state according to IHME's model.
April 4
Tennessee
April 5
Washington
April 7
Nevada
April 8
New York
April 10
Idaho
April 11
Wisconsin
April 12
Oregon
April 13
Louisiana
Vermont
April 14
New Jersey
April 16
Pennsylvania
April 17
Alabama
North Carolina
April 18
Michigan
West Virginia
April 19
California
Colorado
Florida
Maine
Massachusetts
Ohio
April 20
Connecticut
Maryland
Oklahoma
Virginia
April 21
Delaware
District of Columbia
Illinois
New Hampshire
April 22
Indiana
Missouri
April 27
Hawaii
April 28
Georgia
April 29
Alaska
Kentucky
Mississippi
Montana
New Mexico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Texas
April 30
Minnesota
May 1
Arizona
May 2
Iowa
May 3
Kansas
May 4
Wyoming
May 7
Arkansas
May 12
Utah
May 13
Nebraska
South Dakota
May 15
North Dakota