Nearly 30 states are projected to see peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 in the last two weeks of April and early May, according to updated projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle.
The model, first released in late March, presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained through the end of May. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.
IHME's model is updated regularly as new data becomes available. In the most recent update, the daily death data reported through Colorado's Department of Public Health and Environment website was added. IHME also used the Illinois Department of Health COVID-19 website to re-extract daily death data and benchmark inputs against the state's routinely updated 30-day cumulative COVID-19 death count. Access more information about the changes and the projected peak in daily deaths here.
Some have criticized IHME's model, arguing its projections for total deaths shouldn't be used for government decision-making. However, the model continues to be widely used and influential in planning and preparation because of a lack of national models provided by the CDC or other federal agencies. Read more about the controversy in The Washington Post and STAT.
Projections for peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators, have also changed in recent weeks after IHME incorporated new data sources into its model and made changes to its analytical framework.
According to the most recent projections, which use data updated April 13, peak demand for hospital resources occurred at the national level on April 10. However, this varies by state. Below is the projected date of peak demand for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators in each state according to the IHME model.
March 28
Colorado
April 1
Vermont
April 5
Washington
April 6
Louisiana
April 8
Idaho
Illinois
Michigan
Nevada
New York
April 9
Delaware
District of Columbia
New Jersey
April 11
Maryland
April 14
Indiana
Maine
New Hampshire
Ohio
Wisconsin
April 16
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
April 17
California
North Carolina
April 18
Alaska
West Virginia
April 20
Hawaii
Mississippi
April 21
Alabama
Montana
April 25
Connecticut
April 26
New Mexico
Oregon
April 27
Virginia
April 28
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
April 29
Kansas
Kentucky
North Dakota
Texas
April 30
Arizona
Oklahoma
South Carolina
May 1
Georgia
South Dakota
May 2
Arkansas
Rhode Island
Utah
May 3
Florida
Nebraska
May 5
Iowa
Wyoming