Despite widespread claims in the medical community that the United States is facing a serious physician shortage, more health economists and analysts are refuting the idea, according to NPR.
Here are five things to know about the physician shortage, or lack thereof:
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Shortage predictions have been completely wrong in the past. The Association of American Medical Colleges projected a shortage of 130,000 physicians by 2025, according to the NPR report. However, health economist Gail Wilensky, PhD, noted that past predictions have been incorrect, even directionally incorrect. "We thought we were going into a surplus and we ended up in a shortage — or vice versa," Ms. Wilensky said in an interview with NPR.
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Groups calling for more physicians are playing it safe. It's better to train physicians in case the shortage is real, according to remarks on C-SPAN from chief public policy officer of the American Association of Medical Colleges Atul Grover, MD, PhD. He said it would put patients at risk to not train more physicians "just in case everything lines up perfectly and we don't need them."
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Educating and training physicians is a business with business interests. Interest groups create a demand for their service by creating a sense of crisis. Then they're able to help fill the need, Princeton (N.J.) University health economist Uwe Reinhardt, PhD, told NPR.
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Oversaturating the market with physicians comes with risks. Training to become a physician is a big investment of time and money. It is an expense not only to individuals studying to become doctors, but also to academic institutions and the health system, George Washington University professor and pediatrician Fitzhugh Mullan, MD, told NPR.
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The shortage isn't just a shortage of physicians. The growing number of insured Americans under PPACA and the aging baby boomer population means the U.S. needs more primary care. Non-physician primary care providers, which can include physician assistants, nurse practitioners, pharmacists and social workers, can provide a lot of primary care services and lighten the demand for physicians, Ms. Wilensky told NPR. It is also important that the primary care workforce is diverse — by race, ethnicity, age, gender and background, according to the director of the Robert Graham Center, Andrew Bazemore, MD, MPH.
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