A new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation has found repealing the ACA's individual mandate would reduce federal budget deficits by $338 billion between 2018 and 2027, and also leave 13 million more people uninsured in that same time frame.
The mandate requires individuals without employer-sponsored or government-payer insurance to enroll for coverage on ACA marketplaces. Individuals who do not enroll must pay a $695 penalty. The government is expected to collect $43 billion in mandate penalties by 2027. If the mandate is repealed, the savings from reduced federal subsidies for individual plans is expected to far outpace the lost penalties.
The CBO estimates there will be 4 million more uninsured people by 2019 if the individual mandate is repealed. By 2027, roughly 5 million people would lose Medicaid coverage, another 5 million would lose nongroup coverage including marketplaces, and 2 million would lose employer-sponsored coverage, totaling about 13 million people.