Though repealing the Affordable Care Act would reduce federal healthcare spending, it would come at a high cost to states and reduce access to healthcare for middle- and low-income families, according to a new study from the Urban Institute.
Researchers projected the effects of a repeal of the healthcare reform law without a replacement — a prospect it deems as real and possible, based on recent Congressional actions.
Here are four key outcomes of a potential ACA repeal, based on the Urban Institute analysis.
1. An ACA repeal would reduce federal government spending on healthcare for the nonelderly by $90.9 billion in 2021 and by $927 billion between 2017 and 2026. This "appears to be one of the goals of those advocating the repeal," the authors wrote. Federal spending would decrease by 21.2 percent if the ACA were repealed, but it would cost other areas, according to the report.
2. The number of uninsured would rise drastically. The Urban Institute predicts an increase in uninsured of 24 million by 2021, which represents an 81 percent increase. Most of those who would lose coverage would be working class families, about two-thirds of which would have a high school education or less. About 40 percent would be young adults and about half would be non-Hispanic whites. The study estimates about 9.4 million would no longer receive tax credit assistance to pay for private health coverage.
3. State spending would increase by $68.5 billion between 2017 and 2026. The Urban Institute projects that reductions in Medicaid spending — due to 14.5 million people losing Medicaid and CHIP coverage — would be far surpassed by increases in costs associated with uncompensated care.
4. States would experience budget shortfalls. Many states that have expanded Medicaid have actually reported net budget savings, according to the Urban Institute. If the ACA were repealed and this coverage was taken away, some states would likely experience a deficit.
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