A new study debunks speculation the employer mandate and subsidies under the Affordable Care Act might cause a spike in part-time employment.
The study, published in the January issue of Health Affairs, usesnationally representative data from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey from 2005 through 2015, examining data from multiple angles to identify if the ACA was disincentivizing full-time employment.
Specifically, if they did find the ACA influenced hours worked, researchers also wanted to identify if the insurance subsidies under the ACA — available to those without employer-based coverage who meet an income threshold — incentivized workers to drop below full-time employment, or, if the employer mandate — effective for large companies of 100 or more employees in 2015 — incentivized employers to force workers below full-time.
To do this, researchers isolated the data in several different ways. Here are their most significant findings.
1. Among all workers, in 2015 the researchers neither found an increase in the probability of working 29 hours or less per week, nor a decrease in the frequency of working 20 to 34 hour weeks. They did find a small, but significant 0.18 percentage point uptick in the prevalence of working 25 to 29 hours per week from 2013-2014 among all workers. However, the study notes this is in step with trends observed in the data before the passage of the ACA.
2. In large firms affected by the employer mandate in 2015, researchers actually found a slight decrease in part-time employment of 25 to 29 hours per week between 2012 and 2015. However, researchers did note a 0.25 percentage-point dip in 30 to 34 hour week employment in 2015, which is just above the part-time employment threshold.
3. Researchers tested voluntary vs. involuntary part-time employment by looking at data for workers whose total hours on all jobs worked were less than 35 hours per week. The data set includes whether this is voluntary or involuntary due to business conditions or other factors. They found low involuntary part-time employment between 2012 and 2015 and no change among voluntary part-time employment between 2014 and 2015.
4. Researchers hypothesized employees with less education might be likely to drop to part-time employment. This is because they likely have lower wages, and are more likely to qualify for Medicaid or subsidies on the exchanges, or because companies see these employees as less productive. They examined workers with no more than a high school diploma and did find a 0.56 percentage point increase in the probability of working 25 to 29 hour weeks between 2013 and 2015, though researchers note this is consistent with pre-ACA trends.
5. Among older workers ages 60 to 64, who likely incur higher healthcare costs, the prevalence of 25 to 29 hour weeks did slightly increase — by 0.50 percentage points — between 2013 and 2014, but levels dropped back to normal in 2015.
6. Among firms that previously did not offer coverage, but are now mandated to, or employees who had not previously taken advantage of benefits, researchers have found no effect so far on part-time work during the implementation years of the ACA.
Based on the data available so far, the authors conclude, "Our analysis of data from the CPS in general revealed no evidence consistent with the thesis that the ACA caused an overall increase in part-time employment in the U.S."
More articles on finance:
CMS OKs California's Medi-Cal reform
Medicaid expansion gives providers immediate relief from uninsured care
10 things to know about high deductible health plans