IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science, formerly the QuintilesIMS Institute, released a report March 13 with its predictions for global healthcare spending for 2018 through 2022.
For the report, researchers examined prices reported in IQVIA audits of pharmaceutical spending. They note this generally consists of invoice prices wholesalers charge pharmacies, hospitals and other customers, and that true prices, as well as pre-discounted prices, are part of the report. They also note the report includes net spending numbers and projected future off-invoice discounts and rebates.
Here are seven findings from the report.
1. Global medicine spending rose from $725 billion in 2007 to $1.135 trillion in 2017. Pharmerging countries — those with per capita income below $30,000 and a five-year aggregate pharmaceutical growth exceeding $1 billion — made up 24 percent of last year's global medicine spending, while developed countries, including the U.S., made up 66 percent.
2. IQVIA projects global medicine spending will grow 3 percent to 6 percent annually, reaching more than $1.4 trillion in 2022.
3. Branded drug net spending in developed countries reached $395 billion in 2017, up from $326 billion in 2013, according to the report.
4. IQVIA projects net brand spending in developed countries will decrease by 1 percent to 3 percent this year. As a result, researchers said they expect net spending overall on brands in developed countries to fall by approximately $5 billion this year, to $391 billion. Overall, though, they project net brand spending will remain flat through 2022.
5. Specialty medicine's share of global spending rose from 19 percent in 2007 to 32 percent in 2017. The report attributes this to new therapies as well as slowing or declining traditional medicine growth.
6. IQVIA projects 41 percent of spending in developed countries in 2018 will be attributable to $318 billion in specialty medicines. The report suggests specialty medicine's share in global spending will reach 48 percent by 2022.
7. As far as real net per capita medicine spending in the U.S., IQVIA projects it will decrease this year and remain near approximately $800 per person through 2022. Researchers attributed this projection to "factoring in the robust pipeline of new drugs," as well as "moderating brand price increases" and "the impact of brand losses of exclusivity, which will be greater in the next five years than the last five."
Read more about the report here.
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