Millions of customers who purchased health insurance under the federal exchange face a steep increase in the cost of premiums if the Supreme Court rules against the government in King v. Burwell, according to The Hill.
Those insured under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act could be forced to pay an average of $3,300 more each year in premiums if the Supreme Court invalidates the premium tax credits provided to low-income people from the federal insurance exchange. Mississippi, Maine, Alaska and Wyoming would face increases $4,000 or more, according to a study by Avalere Health.
In addition to price hikes, relatively healthy people who lose subsidies and cannot afford insurance on their own will likely drop out altogether, which could "materially impact the risk-pool in both 2015 and future years," the study cautions.
Additionally, many consumers may become unable to re-enroll in their previous health plans due to cost. About one-third of people whose insurance could be impacted by the ruling previously had employer-sponsored health plans. While some of this group may be able to rejoin their employers' plans, the study found many small employers stopped offering coverage after the rollout of the exchanges in 2014.
"We can't assume that consumers will simply be able to return to previous sources of coverage if subsidies are struck down," Dan Mendelson, CEO at Avalere, said in the report. "The ACA has fundamentally shifted the insurance market, and the elimination of subsidies would mean the vast majority of those adversely affected will struggle to maintain access to care."
A Supreme Court decision is expected late this month.