HHS has projected marketplace enrollment in 2015 will be between 9 million and 9.9 million people, which is significantly lower than the 13 million people the Congressional Budget Office projected would enroll.
The CBO's most recent estimates were released in April 2014, and its projections show marketplace enrollment reaching a steady state of 25 million enrollees by 2017. The CBO estimate assumes enrollment will "ramp up" to that steady state in just over three years, according to HHS.
However, enrollment isn't growing at the rate the CBO projected, and when the "ramp up" is extended from three to five years, the estimate for 2015 marketplace enrollment becomes 9 million.
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