Half of U.S. households eligible for a 2014 tax subsidy under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act would owe some repayment to the federal government, while 45 percent would receive a refund, according to estimates from a new analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
The analysis — which is a simulation based on historical patterns of income volatility among all households eligible for PPACA premium subsidies — estimates subsidy-eligible tax households with starting incomes under 200 percent of the federal poverty level would be somewhat more likely to owe a repayment (54 percent) and somewhat less likely to receive a refund (40 percent).
Among those projected to owe a repayment, the average repayment amounts would be $667 for taxpayers with starting incomes under 200 percent of the federal poverty level, $886 for taxpayers with starting incomes of 200 percent to 300 percent of the federal poverty level, and $1,380 for taxpayers with starting incomes of 300 percent to 400 percent of the federal poverty level, according to the analysis.
Among those projected to receive a refund, the average refund amounts would be $412 for taxpayers with starting incomes under 200 percent of the federal poverty level, $1,016 for taxpayers with starting incomes of 200 percent to 300 percent of the federal poverty level, and $1,601 for taxpayers with starting incomes of 300 percent to 400 percent of the federal poverty level.
Overall, the analysis estimates that the average repayment amount would be $794, and the average refund would be $773.
According to a news release, the U.S. Department of the Treasury estimates it will be necessary for 3 percent to 5 percent of all tax-filing households to reconcile PPACA advance premium tax credits when they file 2014 taxes, representing about 4.5 to 7.5 million households.
Estimates came from a model developed by Kaiser analysts using data from the U.S. Census' Survey of Income and Program Participation 2008 Panel, which follows survey respondents from 2009 to 2012.
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