Researchers predicted that by 2060, cardiovascular disease such as heart disease and stroke will increase by at least 30 percent in the U.S.
The analysis, published in the National Library of Medicine, used logistic regression models based on 2013-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, combined with the 2020 census, to project the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and disease between 2025 and 2060.
The analysis predicted that four primary cardiovascular risks will increase:
- Diabetes mellitus: 39.3 percent
- Hypertension: 27.2 percent
- Dyslipidemia: 27.5 percent
- Obesity: 18.3 percent
It also predicted cardiovascular diseases will increase:
- Ischemic heart disease: 31.1 percent
- Heart failure: 33 percent
- Myocardial infarction: 30.1 percent
- Stroke: 34.3 percent
The analysis projected the greatest increase in disease will come between 2025 and 2030. It also predicted that cardiovascular risk factors and disease will decrease among white individuals but significantly increase in Black and Hispanic populations.
"Disparities in the burden of cardiovascular disease are only going to be exacerbated" unless there is an increase in health education, prevention and improved access to effective therapies, the authors of an accompanying editorial from New York City-based Stony Brook University and Dallas-based Baylor University Medical Center, wrote.