Emergency department length of stay is expected to increase 10 percent faster than population growth in the next 40 years, meaning EDs will need to increase capacity by 10 percent to meet this demand, even without an increase in the number of ED visits, according to a study in Health Affairs.
Researchers estimated the effect of the U.S. population's aging on ED and hospitalization demands by examining current age-specific ED visit rates and the Census Bureau's predicted population structure through 2050. Results suggest that despite demographic changes, the number of ED visits will increase at the same rate as population growth. However, the length of stay in the ED is expected to increase 10 percent faster than population growth, necessitating a similar increase in ED capacity and efficiency above what would be required for an increasing number of patients.
In addition, the number of hospital admissions from the ED is expected to increase 23 percent faster than population growth, due in part to older adults' increased likelihood of hospitalization from the ED coupled with the rising percentage of older adults in the population, according to the study. This predicted increase in hospital admissions from the ED will require a greater increase in hospital capacity and efficiency than would be required by an increase in only the number of patients. The researchers did not determine the exact increase in hospital capacity that will be required because they did not consider sources of hospitalization beyond the ED.
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