Multispecialty medical groups and integrated delivery systems expect fee-for-service payments to decline 24 percent in the next two years, but barriers still impede the transition to value-based care, according to survey from the American Medical Group Association.
The survey of 115 respondents representing 101 AMGA-member medical groups found that high areas of concern in implementing value-based care surrounded lacking access to or transparency in data sets, as well as ineffective attribution, benchmarking and risk adjustment methodologies across both commercial and federal programs.
In addition to these trends, the survey highlighted the following key findings.
- Respondents indicating no payers offered a risk-based product in their market: 22 percent.
- Respondents with up to about one-fifth of payers offering risk-based arrangements in their market: 48 percent.
- Respondents who need between three to five years to accept downside risk: 41 percent.
- Respondents who feel they need more than six years to accept downside risk: 17 percent.
- Revenues from commercial accountable care organizations and capitation arrangements are expected to double in the next two years.
- Revenues from federal ACO programs and Medicare Advantage are expected to grow 20 to 36 percent in the next two years.
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