An updated independent estimate suggests Medicare Shared Savings Program ACOs saved more than $1 billion more than CMS says they did.
MSSP ACOs generated $2.66 billion in gross savings from 2013-16, according to an estimate from healthcare consulting firm Dobson DaVanzo & Associates, commissioned by the National Association of ACOs. This is significantly higher than a CMS estimate of $1.6 billion in gross savings for the same period. The firm also reported MSSP ACOs amassed $665.8 million in net savings between 2013-16, after accounting for incentive payments. CMS calculated a $383.6 million net loss for this period.
The Dobson DaVanzo estimate builds on a previous report on ACO savings for 2013-15. The first report also contradicted CMS findings.
Dobson DaVanzo used a difference-in-difference regression estimate to calculate savings, which differs from CMS' benchmarking approach. Dobson DaVanzo compares ACO spending to providers outside of the ACO program, whereas CMS compares ACO spending to an estimate of what their spending would be without the program.
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