Seventy-one percent of Medicare Shared Savings Program ACOs said they would likely leave the program if forced to take on risk, according to a recent survey from the National Association of ACOs.
In April, NAACOS surveyed MSSP Track 1 ACOs who were entering their third agreement period next year about what would happen if they were required to take on more risk. NAACOS specifically surveyed the 82 ACOs that joined MSSP in 2012 or 2013 and remain in Track 1 this year. This makes them required to shift to a two-sided risk model in their third agreement beginning in 2019.
The ACOs answered what they think are the top challenges they face to assuming risk. Nearly 40 percent of ACOs selected one of the following three answers: risk is too great, ACO and CMS rules are too unpredictable, and financial projection is often unreliable.
When asked what they would do if given the opportunity to stay in a Track 1 ACO for a third agreement period, 76 percent of respondents said they would "completely likely" or "very likely" stay in MSSP.
Clif Gaus, president and CEO of NAACOS, said, "It's naïve to think ACOs that aren't ready will be forced into risk in what is ultimately a voluntary program. The more likely outcome will be that many ACOs quit the program, divest their care coordination resources and return to payment models that emphasize volume over value."
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