More than 39 million people are projected to die of antibiotic-resistant infections between 2025 and 2050, a first-of-its-kind study found.
The study, published Sept. 16 in The Lancet and conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance Project, is the first in-depth analysis of global health impacts of antimicrobial resistance. The study looked at 520 million data sets, including hospital discharge records, insurance claims and death certificates, from 204 countries to find deaths related to antimicrobial resistance between 1990 and 2021. The study analyzed results for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations and 11 infectious syndromes. Using this statistical model, the researchers then estimate deaths between 2025 to 2050.
The study found more than one million people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections between 1990 and 2021. The researchers estimated that 1.91 million people could die from infections in 2050, an increase of almost 70% per year compared to 2022.
Between 1990 and 2021, deaths among children under five declined by 50%, but deaths among those 70 and older increased by more than 80%. These trends are projected to continue with deaths among children to halve by 2050 globally and deaths among older people to more than double. The study predicted that 11.8 million deaths — about 30% of the total forecasted fatalities — would occur in South Asia.
In 1990, the number of deaths from Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was 57,200, compared to 130,000 deaths in 2021. Gram-negative bacteria also showed higher resistance to carbapenems compared to other types of antibiotics in the same time period (127,000 in 1990 to 216,000 in 2021.)
Researchers found improving access to healthcare and antibiotics could save 92 million lives between 2025 and 2050.
"The findings highlight the need for decisive actions — including improved healthcare, expanded prevention and control measures, and new antibiotics — to protect people from the threat of AMR," the report said.