An estimated 22 percent of the global population, or 1.7 billion people, have at least one underlying health condition that puts them at risk for severe COVID-19 infection, a study published in The Lancet found.
Of this at-risk group, about 349 million people would likely require hospitalization if they contracted the virus, researchers estimated. Countries with older populations, small island nations with high diabetes rates and African countries with a high HIV/AIDS prevalence had the highest share of people at an increased risk for severe COVID-19. Men were also more likely to be at high risk than women.
To create the estimate, researchers used data from the 2017 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, along with 2020 population estimates from the United Nations.
"Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds," researchers concluded.
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