The ACA is on unsure footing after a panel of judges heard oral arguments in the Texas v. United States case July 9. If the law is struck down, it will have a sweeping effect on the U.S. healthcare system, but most notably on providers, according to PwC's Health Research Institute.
While "not an apples-to-apples comparison," according to HRI Regulatory Center Leader Trine Tsouderos, HRI modeled ACA repeal back in 2017, when Republicans were working to unwind the law in Congress. This model provides some insight on what would happen if the ACA was struck down in court, Ms. Tsouderos wrote in a blog for HRI.
The key findings in 2017 were:
- 23 million Americans would leave the individual health insurance market
- 19 million Americans would lose Medicaid coverage
- 10 million more Americans would seek coverage through their employers
- Providers would be hit the hardest financially, especially rural, critical access and safety-net hospitals in Medicaid-expansion states.
- Payers follow closely behind in terms of financial impact.
- Pharmaceutical and life sciences companies will generally not be affected.
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