Physician shortage estimates are 50 percent worse than anticipated prior to healthcare reform, according to a release by the Association of American Medical Colleges. A report by the AAMC's Center for Workforce Studies made the following four other key findings:
1. The shortage of physicians is expected to quadruple from now and 2015, after 32 million more Americans get coverage under the reform law. While previous projections showed a baseline shortage of 39,600 doctors in 2015, current estimates bring that number closer to 63,000. Shortages are then expected to worsen through 2025.
2. There will be shortages of 45,000 primary care physicians and 46,000 surgeons and medical specialists in the next decade. Particularly evident is a shortage of 35,000 surgeons and 27,000 medical specialists by 2020.
3. A projected 36 million people will enter Medicare in the next decade, but one-third of all physicians are expected to retire in that period.
4. While medical schools continue to increase class size, adding 7,000 graduates every year over the next decade, Medicare-funded residency slots have been frozen. Congress would have to increase in funded training slots by at least a 15 percent, adding another 4,000 physicians a year to the pipeline.
Read the AAMC release.
Read AAMC report (pdf).
Read more coverage on physician shortages:
- Physician Shortages Impede Hospitals' Service Line Development
- As Senate Considers More Medicare-Funded Residency Slots, Hospitals Not Filling Existing Slots
- First-Year Enrollment in U.S. Medical Schools Up 2%
1. The shortage of physicians is expected to quadruple from now and 2015, after 32 million more Americans get coverage under the reform law. While previous projections showed a baseline shortage of 39,600 doctors in 2015, current estimates bring that number closer to 63,000. Shortages are then expected to worsen through 2025.
2. There will be shortages of 45,000 primary care physicians and 46,000 surgeons and medical specialists in the next decade. Particularly evident is a shortage of 35,000 surgeons and 27,000 medical specialists by 2020.
3. A projected 36 million people will enter Medicare in the next decade, but one-third of all physicians are expected to retire in that period.
4. While medical schools continue to increase class size, adding 7,000 graduates every year over the next decade, Medicare-funded residency slots have been frozen. Congress would have to increase in funded training slots by at least a 15 percent, adding another 4,000 physicians a year to the pipeline.
Read the AAMC release.
Read AAMC report (pdf).
Read more coverage on physician shortages:
- Physician Shortages Impede Hospitals' Service Line Development
- As Senate Considers More Medicare-Funded Residency Slots, Hospitals Not Filling Existing Slots
- First-Year Enrollment in U.S. Medical Schools Up 2%