The CMS Office of the Actuary released its national health spending projections for 2021-30 March 28.
The analysis is based on how Americans are expected to spend their healthcare dollars in the years ahead, according to a news release from the journal Health Affairs.
Six things to know:
1. Healthcare spending is estimated to have reached $4.3 trillion in 2021. National health spending is projected to have grown by 4.2 percent in 2021, after seeing 9.7 percent growth in 2020.
2. Average rates of health spending growth of 4.9 percent and 5.3 percent are projected for 2022–24 and 2025–30, respectively. Health spending is projected to hit $6.8 trillion in 2030.
3. Economic growth is expected to outpace national health spending in the early part of the projection period. This will result in a drop in the health share of the economy from 19.7 percent in 2020 to 18.2 percent in 2022, where it is expected to remain through 2024. From 2025-30, the average annual growth in national health expenditures is projected to exceed that of the overall economy. The health share of the economy is projected at 19.6 percent in 2030.
4. The government share of health spending is expected to fall to 46 percent by 2024. That's down from an all-time high of 51 percent in 2020, as COVID-19 supplemental funding is expected to wane.
5. A decline in federal COVID-19 funding is expected to have slowed hospital spending growth (5.7 percent) and physician and clinical service spending growth (5.1 percent) in 2021. Spending rates for both are expected to increase in 2022 (6.9 percent for hospital spending and 6.2 percent for physician and clinical service spending. Spending growth is then expected to stabilize at an average of 5.5 percent for each category for 2025-30.
6. The percentage of the U.S. population with health insurance is expected to peak at 91.1 percent in 2022. This is mainly attributed to Medicaid enrollment. That percentage is then expected to decline toward pre-pandemic levels. In 2030, the rate is projected to be 90.5 percent.