Study highlights top factors for predicting terminal patients' deaths

A research team at the Brunel University London conducted a study published in BMJ Open examining the accuracy of physicians identifying how long a terminally ill patient has to live.

Here are four things to know:

1. For the study, a group of palliative care physicians completed an online test, where they were presented with 20 real case studies of patients referred to palliative care hospitals or hospice care. Physicians were then asked if the patient was close to death.

2. The top 20 percent of the volunteers were presented with 50 more patient cases and asked if the patient would die within the next three days. Here, the researchers identified the key factors in participants' clinical decision-making and what factors led to their medical predictions.

3. Palliative performance scale, the most important factor, measures how much support someone needs based on their ability to function. This ranges from full independence at 100 percent to needing full support and unconsciousness at 10 percent and below.

4. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence instructs physicians to first recognize the imminent death of a patient but does not explain how clinicians are expected to identify dying patients or how new physicians can improve their skills.

"This research has shone a light on how expert doctors are able to recognize when terminally ill patients are nearing the ends of their lives, and it is to be hoped that this greater understanding will help to educate medical students and less experienced doctors about how to improve this clinical skill," Paddy Stone, MD, professor of palliative and end-of-life care at the Marie Curie Research Department at University College London, said.

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