A new plan of attack for mitigating flu vaccine shortages aims to reduce wait times for patients by targeting lapses in the vaccine supply chain that start in the previous year's season.
"In the past, we have seen major flu vaccine shortages during the vaccination season, even though the total supply for the flu vaccines was abundant," Fuqiang Zhang, PhD, co-author of the research, said in a statement. "The major reason for this is because of late delivery."
Currently, vaccine preparation practices begins in January, when researchers work to determine which flu strains are likely to be targets. The government then begins production of a vaccine and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration alerts manufacturers of which strains to target with a goal of having vaccines ready to go by September or November.
Retailers are aware that if the educated guess about predominant strains in the coming seasons is wrong, there could be a delay in vaccine shipments. This can result in retailers requesting smaller supplies in anticipation of fewer patients seeking vaccines after the season is already underway, according to the researchers. This negative feedback loop can cause a shortage during a period of peak demand.
"[Manufacturers and retailers] are making their own decisions, but they are dependent on each other," Dr. Zhang said in a statement. "When you have a decentralized supply chain with independent parties and they are self-interested, they may not want to make decisions that are optimal for the entire supply chain. They will make decisions that maximize their own payoff or profit."
The researchers looking at the supply chain problems have found that combining buybacks for vaccines in combination with rebates for late shipments could help solve the problem. Each solution has been used before with limited success, but combining the two could help maximize supply chain efficiency could break the negative feedback loop.
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