The IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics has analyzed global medicine spending data and has created predictions for the global medicine market's trajectory in the next five years. The following statistics and observations come from the institute's November 2013 report, The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook Through 2017.
1. Total global medication spending is projected to hit $1.2 trillion by 2017, between $205 billion and $235 billion more than in 2012.
2. The U.S., Germany, France, Italy, the U.K., Spain, Japan and China will contribute approximately 60 percent of global medicine spending growth and will account for 67 percent of medicine spending.
3. Per capita medicine spending will vary widely according to mean income levels. Currently, high-income countries' increased spending is due to specialty medicine and diabetes treatment. Countries with per-capita income under $25,000 annually will begin to spend more as the burden of acute disease lessens and chronic diseases are diagnosed and treated more frequently.
4. Annual spending growth with be lowest in 2013 and will grow in developed markets after that point. Expansion of healthcare access in the U.S. will contribute to increased spending levels on medicine, starting in 2014. Emerging markets could double medicine spending growth over five years, from $26 billion in 2012 to between $30 billion and $50 billion in 2017.
5. Spending on medicines for specific diseases will differ depending on market development. Developed markets will focus the majority (71 percent) of their medication spending on 20 top therapy areas, while developing markets have less focused medication spending (45 percent on 20 top therapy areas). Developed markets will spend more on specialty medicine (i.e. oncology, asthma, immunotherapy and antiviral therapies), while developing markets will focus on traditional medicine (i.e. pain, antibiotic, diabetes, cholesterol and antidepressant therapies).
6. Biologic medicines will continue to grow, while biosimilars and nonoriginal biologics will have reduced growth. Biologics, today less than half a percent of the value of medicine spending in developed markets, will represent approximately 20 percent of global market value.
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