Many risk assessment systems and algorithms used by physicians vastly overestimate the likelihood a patient has of having a heart attack, according to a new study conducted by researchers from several institutions, including Johns Hopkins.
Physicians not only use the calculators to estimate a patient's heart attack risk, they use the tools to guide treatment decisions.
Researchers examined the number of predicted heart attacks generated by five risk calculators and compared that number with the actual number of heart attacks and strokes among a group of more than 4,200 individuals, ages 50 to 74, over the length of a decade.
They found four out of five of the calculators generated scores that overestimated the risk of heart attack or stroke. Overestimations ranged from 37 percent to 154 percent in men and 8 percent to 67 percent in women, according to the report.
One of the tools tested was a calculator created by the American Heart Association. The AHA calculator overestimated the risk by 86 percent in men and 67 percent in woman, according to the study. The score generated by Reynolds Risk Score assessment was the least flawed of all the tools tested.
According to the research team, the findings of the study highlight the dangers of relying too heavily on assessment systems and algorithms and underscore the importance of conversing with patients on an individual level to assess additional risk factors.
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