In general, COVID-19 didn't spread faster in communities with low vaccination rates compared to those with high vaccination rates this spring, reports The New York Times.
The Times cites many possible reasons, including many areas with lower vaccination levels being in the South, where warmer weather allowed people to socialize outdoors. Natural immunity might also have played a role.
The pattern led some to believe COVID-19 was in retreat. A poll of Tennessee residents last month found 51 percent agreed with the statement, "The COVID-19 pandemic is largely over," according to the Times.
However, the virus remains a serious threat to unvaccinated individuals, especially now that the surprising spring trend may be ending. COVID-19 cases are now rising in communities with lower vaccination rates, reports the Times. On the flip side, vaccination rates may be high enough in some communities to extinguish the spread. For example, in Marin County, Calif., more than 90 percent of people age 12 and up have received at least one shot. The county is reporting an average of three new confirmed cases per day, reports the Times.
The delta variant could also explain the differing rates between more and less vaccinated places. The vaccines are effective against the variant, reducing the risk of infection and severe illness. For unvaccinated people, however, delta is more contagious than earlier variants.
It's still too soon to know whether recent trends will continue, though it seems likely based on trends related to the delta variant in other countries, reports the Times.