The CDC now considers COVID-19 to be endemic, though not all health experts agree with this classification, NPR reported Aug. 9.
The agency defines a pandemic as "an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people." In contrast, an endemic is "the constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area."
"At this point, COVID-19 can be described as endemic throughout the world," Aron Hall, deputy director for science at the CDC's coronavirus and other respiratory viruses division, told NPR. "It is still a very significant problem, but one that can now be managed against the backdrop of many public health threats and not as sort of a singular pandemic threat."
The CDC has not changed any COVID-19 recommendations or guidelines in response to this categorization and emphasizes the importance of continued surveillance and vaccination, among other efforts.
In contrast to the CDC's stance, some epidemiologists argue COVID-19 is still too unpredictable to be labeled as endemic. For example, this summer's virus surge started earlier than past years, with infections rising in early June, according to NBC News. The surge may also be poised to become the largest summer wave seen since COVID-19 emerged, with wastewater data showing virus levels are high across most of the U.S. and rising.
"If you just talk about infections, this is probably going to end up becoming the largest summer wave we’ve had," Ashish Jha, MD, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and former White House COVID-19 response coordinator, told NBC News. "It's still not as big as the winter waves, but it is starting to get close."
Katelyn Jetelina, PhD, a California-based epidemiologist, said she expects it to take at least a decade for the virus to fall into a more predictable pattern. Others, including Dr. Jha, argue that the virus is predictable enough to be considered endemic.
Experts have also cautioned against letting the word "endemic" trick us into a false sense of complacency. Endemics can still be wide-reaching and deadly and do not necessarily mean a return to "normal," according to a 2022 op-ed published in Nature.
"I think we have to be very careful in just writing this off and saying, 'Well, it's just a mild infection.' It’s not," Michael Osterholm, PhD, an infectious disease expert and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, told NPR. "It is particularly a significant risk for those who are older and those who have underlying conditions. The good news is for most younger, otherwise healthier people this will be like having a flu-like infection."