COVID-19 cases are projected to increase by nearly 40 percent over the next two weeks, though it's still unclear whether hospitalizations and deaths may follow suit in November, according to national disease modeling.
Three forecasts to know:
Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 39 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Rochester Minn.-based Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 35,638.9 cases on Nov. 3 to 49,564 by Nov. 17.
The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 12.3 cases per 100,000 population to 15.1 over the same period.
Hospitalizations: Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend in the U.S. over the next four weeks, with 1,300 to 7,300 new admissions likely reported on Nov. 25, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 14 modeling groups. This figure is down from last week's projection of 1,400 to 7,400 new admissions likely reported on Nov. 18.
The nation's seven-day average of new hospital admissions was 3,273 as of Nov. 4, down slightly from 3,350 the previous week, CDC data shows.
Deaths: COVID-19 deaths are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 13 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,100 to 4,400 deaths likely reported in the week ending Nov. 26, which translates to a daily total of 157.1 to 628.6.
The nation's current seven-day daily death average was 320 as of Nov. 6, down 11 percent in the last two weeks, according to data tracked by The New York Times.
The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.
Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values Nov. 7 at 9:40 a.m. CDT.