COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths might have been prevented last summer had pandemic restrictions remained in place, researchers from San Diego-based Scripps Health and New York City-based Columbia University found.
On June 12, 2020, officials in San Diego County, Calif., allowed businesses such as restaurants and gyms to reopen limited indoor activities. On July 7, 2020, restrictions were reinstated due to a spike in cases.
Researchers combined data from the health system with mathematical disease transmission modeling to evaluate how the early reopening affected deaths and hospitalizations.
In the first modeled scenario, where restrictions were never lifted, about 400 COVID-19 hospitalizations and 45 deaths might have been avoided across Scripps' five hospital campuses, according to an April 5 news release.
In a scenario where the temporary reopening only lasted one week, 172 hospitalizations and 19 deaths might have been avoided.
In the last scenario, where the temporary reopening lasted much longer than 25 days, researchers predicted an additional 762 hospitalizations and 85 deaths would have occurred.
"We created the summer reopening study to establish scientific and evidence-based reassurance that social distancing works," said Nathaniel Brown, director of health data sciences at Scripps. "We would like to reassure the public that their sacrifices — economic, personal and otherwise — are not in vain, but are in fact preventing avoidable sickness and death."