The demand for hospital beds in the U.S. is projected to far exceed capacity by mid-April, according to an analysis from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle.
The study presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.
While peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators, will occur at the national level by April 15, this varies by state. According to the model, 20 states will face a shortage of ICU beds when COVID-19 peaks. Below are the states expected to face a shortage and their projected COVID-19 peak dates.
Alaska
Projected peak date: April 17
ICU bed shortage: 100
Connecticut
Projected peak date: April 21
ICU bed shortage: 1,751
Florida
Projected peak date: April 21
ICU bed shortage: 769
Georgia
Projected peak date: April 20
ICU bed shortage: 743
Hawaii
Projected peak date: April 12
ICU bed shortage: 66
Illinois
Projected peak date: April 16
ICU bed shortage: 722
Indiana
Projected peak date: April 17
ICU bed shortage: 159
Kentucky
Projected peak date: April 21
ICU bed shortage: 55
Maryland
Projected peak date: April 18
ICU bed shortage: 958
Massachusetts
Projected peak date: April 18
ICU bed shortage: 2,745
Michigan
Projected peak date: April 8
ICU bed shortage: 910
Nevada
Projected peak date: April 18
ICU bed shortage: 300
New Jersey
Projected peak date: April 15
ICU bed shortage: 4,527
New Mexico
Projected peak date: April 21
ICU bed shortage: 130
New York
Projected peak date: April 8
ICU bed shortage: 5,946
North Dakota
Projected peak date: April 17
ICU bed shortage: 102
Rhode Island
Projected peak date: April 27
ICU bed shortage: 293
Virginia
Projected peak date: April 20
ICU bed shortage: 231
Wisconsin
Projected peak date: April 17
ICU bed shortage: 130
Wyoming
Projected peak date: April 29
ICU bed shortage: 8