The Zika virus has garnered substantial attention in recent months from the media, scientists, lawmakers and the public. Still, the mosquito-borne illness is shrouded in mystery.
Only recently did the World Health Organization confirm a link between Zika and neurological disorders like the birth defect microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Still, Zika cases that confound experts arise and misperceptions in the U.S. are common.
Experts in various fields related to science and medicine recently weighed in on the emerging Zika threat in an article published in STAT.
1. Is Zika here to stay?
Duane Gubler, an emerging disease expert at the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore and a member of the World Health Organization's Zika emergency committee, says the virus will behave like dengue, recurring with consistency in regions that have rainy seasons.
Scott Halstead, MD, a former U.S. Army scientist, makes a different prediction. Dr. Halstead believes the virus will disappear in a few years and stay gone for decades, similar to chikungunya. "The rate at which people are getting infected right now certainly suggests that we're heading, within a year or two, to achieve sufficient herd immunity for this virus to die out," Dr. Halstead told STAT.
2. If people develop immunity to Zika now, will that reduce the rates of microcephaly in the future?
It's unclear, but some experts have questioned the long-term efficacy of mosquito control in the fight against Zika. Norway's former chief epidemiologist, Preben Aavitsland, MD, has encouraged parents to allow young girls to be bitten by the Zika-carrying mosquito. If the lifelong immunity theory is correct, girls infected when they are younger won't have to worry about Zika when they become older and start to have children.
Beth Kirkpatrick, MD, director of the University of Vermont's Vaccine Testing Center in Burlington, has a different view. She believes the natural infection approach is too unpredictable. Without mosquito control and other preventative measures, people who shouldn't get infected — pregnant women — will.
3. What about a vaccine?
There is no West Nile vaccine, and some think the story behind the failure to produce such a vaccine may be a cautionary tale regarding what could transpire with Zika. In the early 2000s, there was a high level of interest in a West Nile vaccine. By the time U.S. government scientists designed a vaccine and needed an industry partner, concern over the virus had waned and so had the demand for the vaccine.
"We need the vaccine right now. And the need for the vaccine probably will be a little bit less next year than it is this year. And then two years from now, the epidemic threat will disappear. Meanwhile, how are you going to get the vaccine licensed?" Dr. Halstead told STAT about the potential future of a Zika vaccine.
Rajeev Venkayya, MD, a former White House director of biodefense under President George W. Bush, has a differing opinion. Dr. Venkayya says the alarm over the damage the virus can inflict on a fetus will steadily continue to drive the demand for a vaccine. He told STAT, "It will be a long time, I think, before this fear goes away."
More articles on the Zika virus:
CDC officials say US needs new mosquito-fighting strategy to combat Zika
CDC hosts national Zika summit in Atlanta
Purdue researchers animate Zika virus structure to help develop treatment