Since Zika began popping up in headlines in late 2015, we've learned much about the mysterious, mosquito-borne illness. However, there is still much we don't know.
In 2016, infectious disease experts confirmed the link between Zika and the neurologically debilitating birth defect microcephaly, in which babies are born with abnormally small heads. We also learned Zika can incite paralysis in adults and can be spread sexually via semen or vaginal secretions, but there is still much left to be discovered.
Among the many questions surrounding the Zika virus, here are three that may be answered in 2017.
Will Zika become endemic in the U.S.?
The mosquito season in 2017 will likely give us a strong indication of Zika's future in America. While scientific certainty as to whether or not the Zika virus will become native to the United States has yet to be established, some experts have already made strong predictions.
In October, Tom Frieden, MD, director of the CDC, said current technologies cannot control diseases spread by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. According to Dr. Frieden, in the age of global trade and travel, heavily populated metropolises and climate change, the spread of pathogens like Zika is the "new normal."
Michael Callahan, MD, tropical disease specialist with Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston and CEO and co-founder of the Zika Foundation, told NPR in October, "Unfortunately, in all of our Zika mosquito control efforts in southeast Asia, West Africa and here in the tropical Americas, once the virus has entered the local Aedes mosquito populations, we've never been able to get it out — totally out."
How likely is Zika to cause birth defects?
In 2016, researchers offered up some conflicting data regarding the likelihood of Zika-infected pregnant women giving birth to children afflicted with birth defects related to the virus.
According to one study on CDC data published in JAMA, 6 percent of fetuses or infants born to U.S. women with laboratory evidence of Zika infection displayed evidence of congenital birth defects related to the virus. Another study, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, puts the likelihood much higher. After monitoring the pregnancies of hundreds of women with Zika in Brazil, researchers determined approximately 4 in 10 infants infected with Zika virus in the womb may develop significant birth defects.
More research on the matter is likely on the horizon in 2017.
When will we have a Zika vaccine?
The sprint to create a Zika vaccine is a pressing global health priority involving millions in government funding and dozens of pharmaceutical companies, according an op-ed from The New York Times.
In September, the French pharmaceutical company Sanofi announced HHS agreed to provide $43.2 million in funding for the phase II development of an inactivated Zika vaccine. Also in September, HHS announced a four-year contract for $8.2 million with Moderna Therapeutics of Cambridge, Mass., for the advancement of a novel messenger RNA-based Zika vaccine.
In October, a study on a promising Zika vaccine candidate produced at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine was published in EBioMedicine. The study found the vaccine to be 100 percent effective in protecting newborn mice from the debilitating effects of congenital Zika. However, the vaccine is less likely to be successful in people because it uses the common cold virus as a delivery mechanism. The vast majority of humanity has had a cold, which would prohibit the vaccine from developing effective Zika antibodies.
While a wealth of resources and manpower have been devoted to creating a safe and effective Zika vaccine, an exact timetable for its arrival has not yet been set. Perhaps in 2017, an official prognostication will be established.
More articles on the Zika virus:
University of Florida infectious disease expert to head new Zika research initiative
FDA issues safety alert for Zika tests due to false positives
CDC adds $184M to Zika fight