Modern infectious disease pandemics and epidemics — think Ebola, HIV and Zika — are largely attributable to zoonosis, which occurs when animals transmit disease to humans, according to a new paper published in the journal Nature.
To create a prediction model for the next zoonotic pandemic, researchers from EcoHealth Alliance — a research and outreach organization focused on global health — conducted an examination of factors that could spur such an occurrence. The team considered multiple contributing factors, including the number of viruses carried by specific species and the species' potential for interaction with humans.
Here are three key takeaways from the paper.
1. Tropical regions — like Central and South America, West and Central Africa, and Southeast Asia — are hotspots for zoonotic outbreaks due to high biodiversity and the large number of animal species capable of transmitting viruses to humans in these regions.
2. Bats are the most likely vectors for future zoonotic pandemics as they carry more diseases that can be potentially transmitted to humans than any other mammal.
3. Rodents and primates like monkeys and apes harbored the second highest prevalence of zoonotic disease.
"If you are an organization that is doing surveillance to stop the next Ebola — and we know there are a hundred other Ebola viruses we have not discovered out there on the planet — this paper says where they would be," said Peter Daszak, PhD, president of EcoHealth and senior author of the paper, according to CNBC. "And then you can target your programs to go and look for them. And if you find them you can determine whether it is likely something that can infect people."
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