Up to 200,000 healthcare jobs may be lost over the next year and employers will scale back investment as they await a clear plan for healthcare reform from President-elect Donald Trump, Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, projected, according to analysis from Bloomberg.
"Businesses hate uncertainty and until there is more flesh on the bones of all these proposals floating around, we think companies will take a pass on investment of any kind — machines, headcount, real estate," Mr. Rupkey said, according to Bloomberg.
Healthcare has been a main driver of job growth, adding more than 2 million jobs since the end of the 2007 to 2009 recession.
However, that growth is expected to slow, according to Mr. Rupkey, as a result of ambiguity around the future of the ACA. On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump promised to repeal and replace the law, but since his election, has said he'll consider preserving certain elements of it, such as guaranteeing coverage for people with pre-existing conditions and adult children living with parents, according to Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs' economist Alec Phillips, said under Trump's administration he expects "something that looks more like reform of the current system rather than wholesale replacement," with any changes likely not taking effect until 2019 due to the complexity of drafting an alternative.
"Even if Trump ultimately only tweaks Obamacare, the uncertainty leading up to that would likely cause healthcare companies to be more reticent about adding to their payrolls," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. However, his estimate is lower than Mr. Rupkey's. Mr. Zandi estimates the loss of "just over 100,000 jobs," according to Bloomberg.