Social media and internet reports can be useful in forecasting infectious disease outbreaks, according to an article published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases. They could potentially provide an alternative to mathematical models typically used to forecast outbreaks, but are difficult to formulate in the early stages when there is a dearth of accurate information.
Researchers tracked and analyzed reports from public health authorities and credible media outlets posted via social media or their websites during the 2014 to 2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea.
"Our internet-based findings on exposure patterns are in good agreement with those derived from traditional epidemiological surveillance data, which can be available after considerable delays," the researchers wrote.
Additionally, they noted that Ebola outbreak was an interesting case study as initially data was limited to weekly case counts at the country level. The internet-based reports proved useful in providing detailed descriptions of Ebola cases occurring within families in clusters or due to hospital exposure, especially in the hardest hit regions.
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