Between 2014 and 2019, the U.S. could spend $2.6 trillion less on healthcare than initially projected upon the passage of the Affordable Care Act.
Researchers affiliate with the Urban Institute and funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation found signs that health spending spiked in 2014, but also found evidence spending growth has slowed since. The new estimate is up from April 2015, when the Urban Institute estimated cumulative projected spending for 2014 to 2019 had fallen by $2.5 trillion.
The authors say large declines in Medicare, Medicaid, private insurance and other health spending projections impacted the revision. "Policy changes such as the Supreme Court decision on the ACA Medicaid expansion and the Budget Control Act of 2011 contributed to the reduced spending projections, but the recession and sluggish economic recovery were also important factors," the authors wrote. Their findings suggest that factors beyond the economy are contributing to the slowed growth in health spending.
"There are many potential drivers of the recent slowdown in spending growth rates, and no one can be sure how MACRA [the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act] may impact spending going forward," Kathy Hempstead of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation said in a statement. "If this healthcare spending growth slowdown continues, spending will be trillions less before the end of the decade."
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